ULTIMATELY, the condition of the game is as it is currently. Theres 2 closed servers, with that having no end in sight. It may have been a long game on SE's part to trim the RMT markets by preventing them from making new characters post ban.. but where it stands now we have no real incentive to lower the population of active real players.
It started with one closed server, and it became a second closed server because everyone who was getting banned from the first closed server, which was the largest in population, went to the second largest server. I'll give you one guess as to which server saw the greatest influx of population after SE put a second server on lockdown, you have a 1 in 14 chance to get this right.
Did you guess Odin, the third largest server? Congratulations! A winner you are.
Why did the third largest server see the biggest influx after the second largest server got locked down? Because people who want to play on large servers will choose to play on the largest server available.
The people who want to play on large servers will play on the largest server available. You cant tell people who want to play on Asura/Baha/Odin to go to Cerb/Sylph/Levi.
The only thing that will be accomplished by merging smaller servers is pissing off 70% of the playerbase.
Honestly, SE should have never closed Asura. They should have left it open and just straight up said the following:
"We have no intention to fix congestion issues. This is the largest server and we implemented queue systems on all modern content to ensure everyone enters in the order they signed up. If congestion is a problem, please feel free to use the world transfer service to move to another server". Use a laissez-faire approach to a problem the playerbase self-inflicted.