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AMAN Trove Pattern Observation
By Seun 2026-09-17 09:06:37
It's so much wasted time that could be better spent actually playing the game.
Keep in mind, you're talking to a bunch of people who participate in Vana'bout.
Honestly, play it however makes it more enjoyable for you. I've always played for the win, even when the game didn't have a win condition. The only way a game of chance is exciting to me is beating the odds.
Their strategy tho...
[+]
By kaffy 2026-09-17 09:08:46
Moon phases and crafting
Anything and everything Treasure Hunter
Crowding/strafing goblins to make them drop the bomb
Trying to remember the best ones.
By Seun 2026-09-17 09:15:13
Don't forget to enter trove with your lucky egg and wild rarab tail :P
 Lakshmi.Buukki
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
By Lakshmi.Buukki 2026-09-17 09:37:43
https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/56102/new-htbf-shinryu-20/41/#3796826
Not saying I believe it. Don't even care if it's just a wild coincidence. There is no harm in playing the game within the game. (People forget all the failures and conveniently remember the successes)
 Cerberus.Kylos
Serveur: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4867
By Cerberus.Kylos 2026-09-17 09:41:47
It's so much wasted time that could be better spent actually playing the game.
Keep in mind, you're talking to a bunch of people who participate in Vana'bout.
Honestly, play it however makes it more enjoyable for you. I've always played for the win, even when the game didn't have a win condition. The only way a game of chance is exciting to me is beating the odds.
Their strategy tho...
My dad plays this game and is the same. Got his Crep cloak from doing a wild orb where he didn't get just 1... but 3 Loud Thuds. I told him he's crazy and super lucky. I would have cashed out after 1 every time. That's maybe why I still don't have a cloak, lol.
[+]
By kaffy 2026-09-17 09:57:47
In individual instances you're right. Sometimes you just gotta believe in the heart of the cards. But misguided data interpretation can become widely accepted despite any real proof, and even despite discovery that it cannot work the way we thought it did.
The only way to get a crep cloak is to keep doing it until it drops, and the only way to win trove is do so many runs that you eventually get something.
Do you take note every time you ws for cap damage, or when you miss that first hit?
Lakshmi.Buukki
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
By Lakshmi.Buukki 2026-09-17 10:21:37
To be clear, [i believe] all of this stuff is complete ****. Bro Science. The ol 'Drink Creatine with Cranberry juice so the sugar hits your blood stream faster and you get a better pump, but it has to be within 1 hour pre-workout, or you don't get the effect'. Complete nonsense*. I'm still gonna bumrush the Goblin's right arm when he readies Bomb Toss, because he has a greater chance* to drop his bomb and self-destruct.
People will always latch onto any data and draw incorrect conclusions based on eyeball/personal data etc. This test doesn't really change that nor encourage misinformation per se. I don't believe they put out this information as gospel, just observations? Tracking data and posting findings is different than a person taking that data and drawing the incorrect conclusion. That's on them
By kaffy 2026-09-17 10:38:46
Quote: Summary Verdict
Entertainment & Flavor: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (A fun, tense, and creative community investigation featuring great banter between Touya and Yusa).
Viability: Superstitious / Placebo. While the render flash is a real Direct3D8 client artifact, it is not tied to the server's randomized Mimic designation.
Key Advice from the Video: If you try it, don't marathon runs—staring at sub-frame screen flashes with minimum draw distance causes severe eye fatigue and tension!
Based on that they weren't attempting to make any definitive conclusions, and were just having fun. The thing is, despite your acknowledgement of bro science you still change your behavior based on something you know not to matter. Is it a big deal? Not really. Just pointing out that it happens all the time in an effort to make sense out of randomness or rarity.
Lakshmi.Buukki
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
By Lakshmi.Buukki 2026-09-17 11:00:31
The thing is, despite your acknowledgement of bro science you still change your behavior based on something you know not to matter.
It's kind of a meta joke most of the time, and sometimes SE plays along with the superstitions. I think that makes it more funny than anything.
And to clarify further, with regards to my Shinryu screenshot, I didn't change my behavior at all in that case. I wasn't actively looking for drops during full moons. I just happened to get the only non accessory drop from him in hundreds of runs, and humorously typed "/clock" and smiled at the fact that it was a full moon. 6 months later randomly in the middle of the night/early morning, I decided to run a Venus orb, saw the ITG thud and got the cloak. /Clock revealed it was also a full moon. It was more funny than a revelation of a pattern. Had there never been rumors of "full moon affects drops", I probably would have never checked.
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By kaffy 2026-09-17 11:46:44
Part of the reason I like this community so much is the work done to cut through all the *** and figure out what is really going on under the hood, because we are so often given basically nothing to work with. Just have to accept that it can easily go in either direction towards actual truth or cope. And yes, the devs are laughing the whole time.
 Fenrir.Jinxs
Serveur: Fenrir
Game: FFXI
Posts: 1308
By Fenrir.Jinxs 2026-09-17 13:07:41
Moon phases full and new do something to the game in general for sure
I've observed sortie runs that had +1s rain from the sky 4-6 on a 9 boss run at 95%->100% Moon
not a clue
but imo
What is life without a little hope sometimes even if we know it is probably ***
I'm gonna continue my strategy of running from the chest I fear most
Lakshmi.Buukki
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
By Lakshmi.Buukki 2026-09-17 13:56:15
Everything "does" something.
They've coded
Moon phase: Plenilune Embrace and most of Fenrir's buffs are affected by moon phase. Some gear is too.
Time of day: Ninja's gear, other "nighttime" items (Lugra Earring)
Direction/Position: Sneak/Trick attack, Cover, Feint, Closed Position, Innin/Yonin, Overwhelm, Conal/Rear triggering abilities etc
Race: specific food, gear. Your race even affects certain in game dialogue and rewards.
Dozens of other examples. Especially latent effects.
The difference is the game explicitly tells you these factors affect something. But there's hundreds of examples of scenarios where the game doesn't tell you anything, and it's up to the player to figure it out, and we have. Who's to say that moon phase, direction, time of day, or any other factor absolutely DOES affect something, but we haven't discovered it yet, or it's simply undisclosed. If they can directly inform the player of conditions that affect something else, it's safe to assume they could also code the same conditions across the game and just never say anything.
Who the hell would have known fume existed if not for SE revealing that? It would have been an extremely random scenario to type that emote under the specific conditions. As an example.
Fenrir.Jinxs
Serveur: Fenrir
Game: FFXI
Posts: 1308
By Fenrir.Jinxs 2026-09-17 14:19:32
personally, the amount of mystery in this game is what makes it great and also frustrating *sometimes
looking at just some of the Wolverine headlines I want no part of that coddling
sounds like twitch the game
[+]
By Dodik 2026-09-17 15:33:53
To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
Have had this happen multiple times.
My going theory is the random number generator they use can throw up duplicates if you do many runs back-to-back.
Can also be seen if you open gobbie box many times in a row, you'll get some duplicates.
[+]
Lakshmi.Sahzi
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
Posts: 317
By Lakshmi.Sahzi 2026-09-17 17:57:06
Y'all stop being mean and let OP have his fun...
Edit: Sh*t.. does this make me doofus rick?
[+]
 Carbuncle.Nynja
Serveur: Carbuncle
Game: FFXI
Posts: 8092
By Carbuncle.Nynja 2026-09-17 18:13:47
Random numbers are not random.
SE updated the random number generator FFXI uses in Oct 2024. It was in relation to sortie earrings, but only because that was what deduced the issue.
By DaneBlood 2026-09-17 18:35:25
Yeah, so I know this is probably one big fat annoying coincidence, and I don't want to give any hope of anything, but I noticed a pattern form for me while doing AMAN Trove today on different characters.
So the way I do this, I open the front left chest, the back left, the one next to that, the chest in front, the one next to that, and so on. Once I get to 6 I seriously consider opening the gold, because most of the time the 7th is Chest-o-Plenty. The way you open them shouldn't matter, so long as it's the same way every time across all characters.
Today, I did a short spell of four Mars Orbs, two on each character. The first was on my mule in Waughroon Shrine. So I opened the front left and got Noise, the second was Chest-o-Plenty. The second I got Thud on first, and Loud Thud on second, and opened the Gold to get a Dagon Breastplate (mule has it now despite no Omen access.. woo).
Ok cool, I got lucky. I switched over to my main character and went to Balga's Dais for a change of pace. Guess what happened? Exactly the same result. I got Noise and Mimic on first pop. Thud and Loud Thud on second pop. Got a body piece, but sadly it wasn't an Omen body, but the rare Enforcer's Harness (maybe because I already have Dagon?). What's the chance of that happening? To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
I think I'm going to start making a record, because if there are any kind of presets at work, it may be possible to figure out where things are based off earlier runs. It's also likely this would reset per game day, real day or week at JP midnight, so if there's any recording over several characters you would want to do them quickly back to back and possibly in different areas. Again, it's probably more likely that I got stupid lucky to get the exact same result like this, but what if it isn't? Just a thought.
What is the p value for your observations ?
By DaneBlood 2026-09-17 18:37:07
I think people need to read up on the birthday paradox if all you evidence is based on "something came up double"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem
Serveur: Phoenix
Game: FFXI
Posts: 263
By Phoenix.Enochroot 2026-09-17 18:59:12
Might as well register my voodoo superstitions here. I do bottom-left to bottom-right, top-right to top-left. All or nothing, even if I get an ITG somewhere in the middle or if one is popped at start.
When they introduced the Limbus "pick the lucky zone" mechanic I also started switching up which BCNM zones I'd do. I'd pick one at random and if one full round of characters netted me 0 full clears, I'd switch to a different zone. Does it help? Who the *** knows, but it's Doing Something, Monty Hall-problem-style or whatever.
One other oddity that I do (or superstition I subscribe to) that I haven't seen mentioned much, if at all - and which is somewhat in line with the jp necrobump vid... is that after targeting the chest I'm about to open, I wait a second or two. Sometimes it automatically un-targets without me having touched any keys. When that happens, I assume the mimic has moved to that coffer and I move on to the next. Dunno how or why that happens, but it does. I don't THINK it's because of any addon/plugin, or at least if it is, it's not on purpose.
I don't keep track of success rate and I've taken lots of breaks. But with this method I've gotten a bunch of crep stuff, platemails, a dozen hoxne pieces, and more pulse weapons than I could ever use.
By waffle 2026-09-17 20:00:04
Moon phases full and new do something to the game in general for sure Well, moon phase affects fishing. SE confirmed that long ago. In fact back in the June 2015 update - https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/47481
they even had
Quote: Fishing has undergone the following additions and adjustments.
Beneficial effects granted by the phase of the moon have been increased.
 Asura.Karppa
Serveur: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 621
By Asura.Karppa 2026-09-18 10:14:00
Moon phases full and new do something to the game in general for sure Well, moon phase affects fishing. SE confirmed that long ago. In fact back in the June 2015 update - https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/47481
they even had
Quote: Fishing has undergone the following additions and adjustments.
Beneficial effects granted by the phase of the moon have been increased. And facing other direction from coffer will definately do difference..j/k
Cerberus.Kylos
Serveur: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4867
By Cerberus.Kylos 2026-09-18 12:08:39
Yeah, so I know this is probably one big fat annoying coincidence, and I don't want to give any hope of anything, but I noticed a pattern form for me while doing AMAN Trove today on different characters.
So the way I do this, I open the front left chest, the back left, the one next to that, the chest in front, the one next to that, and so on. Once I get to 6 I seriously consider opening the gold, because most of the time the 7th is Chest-o-Plenty. The way you open them shouldn't matter, so long as it's the same way every time across all characters.
Today, I did a short spell of four Mars Orbs, two on each character. The first was on my mule in Waughroon Shrine. So I opened the front left and got Noise, the second was Chest-o-Plenty. The second I got Thud on first, and Loud Thud on second, and opened the Gold to get a Dagon Breastplate (mule has it now despite no Omen access.. woo).
Ok cool, I got lucky. I switched over to my main character and went to Balga's Dais for a change of pace. Guess what happened? Exactly the same result. I got Noise and Mimic on first pop. Thud and Loud Thud on second pop. Got a body piece, but sadly it wasn't an Omen body, but the rare Enforcer's Harness (maybe because I already have Dagon?). What's the chance of that happening? To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
I think I'm going to start making a record, because if there are any kind of presets at work, it may be possible to figure out where things are based off earlier runs. It's also likely this would reset per game day, real day or week at JP midnight, so if there's any recording over several characters you would want to do them quickly back to back and possibly in different areas. Again, it's probably more likely that I got stupid lucky to get the exact same result like this, but what if it isn't? Just a thought.
What is the p value for your observations ?
I don't have one. I was seeing phantoms and trying to see a pattern emerging that wasn't really there. And if there is one, it is far too complex to be wasting my time with.
To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
Have had this happen multiple times.
My going theory is the random number generator they use can throw up duplicates if you do many runs back-to-back.
Can also be seen if you open gobbie box many times in a row, you'll get some duplicates.
Wouldn't surprise me, but again, if there is any kind of pattern to this, the devs made it as difficult as possible to figure out. They knew it would be exploited if there was any chance whatsoever.
Asura.Karppa
Serveur: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 621
By Asura.Karppa 2026-09-18 13:18:15
Yeah, so I know this is probably one big fat annoying coincidence, and I don't want to give any hope of anything, but I noticed a pattern form for me while doing AMAN Trove today on different characters.
So the way I do this, I open the front left chest, the back left, the one next to that, the chest in front, the one next to that, and so on. Once I get to 6 I seriously consider opening the gold, because most of the time the 7th is Chest-o-Plenty. The way you open them shouldn't matter, so long as it's the same way every time across all characters.
Today, I did a short spell of four Mars Orbs, two on each character. The first was on my mule in Waughroon Shrine. So I opened the front left and got Noise, the second was Chest-o-Plenty. The second I got Thud on first, and Loud Thud on second, and opened the Gold to get a Dagon Breastplate (mule has it now despite no Omen access.. woo).
Ok cool, I got lucky. I switched over to my main character and went to Balga's Dais for a change of pace. Guess what happened? Exactly the same result. I got Noise and Mimic on first pop. Thud and Loud Thud on second pop. Got a body piece, but sadly it wasn't an Omen body, but the rare Enforcer's Harness (maybe because I already have Dagon?). What's the chance of that happening? To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
I think I'm going to start making a record, because if there are any kind of presets at work, it may be possible to figure out where things are based off earlier runs. It's also likely this would reset per game day, real day or week at JP midnight, so if there's any recording over several characters you would want to do them quickly back to back and possibly in different areas. Again, it's probably more likely that I got stupid lucky to get the exact same result like this, but what if it isn't? Just a thought.
What is the p value for your observations ?
I don't have one. I was seeing phantoms and trying to see a pattern emerging that wasn't really there. And if there is one, it is far too complex to be wasting my time with.
To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
Have had this happen multiple times.
My going theory is the random number generator they use can throw up duplicates if you do many runs back-to-back.
Can also be seen if you open gobbie box many times in a row, you'll get some duplicates.
Wouldn't surprise me, but again, if there is any kind of pattern to this, the devs made it as difficult as possible to figure out. They knew it would be exploited if there was any chance whatsoever. Okay, I don’t know if this is unusual, but a few times from different chars I’ve gotten the same chests… so it’s hard to say.
Yeah, so I know this is probably one big fat annoying coincidence, and I don't want to give any hope of anything, but I noticed a pattern form for me while doing AMAN Trove today on different characters.
So the way I do this, I open the front left chest, the back left, the one next to that, the chest in front, the one next to that, and so on. Once I get to 6 I seriously consider opening the gold, because most of the time the 7th is Chest-o-Plenty. The way you open them shouldn't matter, so long as it's the same way every time across all characters.
Today, I did a short spell of four Mars Orbs, two on each character. The first was on my mule in Waughroon Shrine. So I opened the front left and got Noise, the second was Chest-o-Plenty. The second I got Thud on first, and Loud Thud on second, and opened the Gold to get a Dagon Breastplate (mule has it now despite no Omen access.. woo).
Ok cool, I got lucky. I switched over to my main character and went to Balga's Dais for a change of pace. Guess what happened? Exactly the same result. I got Noise and Mimic on first pop. Thud and Loud Thud on second pop. Got a body piece, but sadly it wasn't an Omen body, but the rare Enforcer's Harness (maybe because I already have Dagon?). What's the chance of that happening? To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.
I think I'm going to start making a record, because if there are any kind of presets at work, it may be possible to figure out where things are based off earlier runs. It's also likely this would reset per game day, real day or week at JP midnight, so if there's any recording over several characters you would want to do them quickly back to back and possibly in different areas. Again, it's probably more likely that I got stupid lucky to get the exact same result like this, but what if it isn't? Just a thought.
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