U.S. Climate Has Already Changed, Study Finds

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U.S. Climate Has Already Changed, Study Finds
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 Cerberus.Pleebo
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By Cerberus.Pleebo 2014-05-12 18:07:48
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At least you guys have each other.
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-05-12 18:10:21
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Don't worry Pleeb, you have Ihina the conspiracy theorist and Jet the "we can't say his condition because he throws a temper tantrum if you do".
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 Lakshmi.Sparthosx
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By Lakshmi.Sparthosx 2014-05-12 18:10:49
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Since we're gonna throw around stupid stereotypes, XI Republicans, how old is the Earth again? How was the Earth formed? Is Obama American?
 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-12 18:20:42
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I heard Obama was born in Seattle.
 Odin.Zicdeh
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By Odin.Zicdeh 2014-05-12 18:28:15
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Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
I heard Obama was born in Seattle.


Didn't know there was a Seattle in Kenya.
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 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-12 18:30:16
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Odin.Zicdeh said: »
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
I heard Obama was born in Seattle.


Didn't know there was a Seattle in Kenya.
Different narrative.
 Odin.Zicdeh
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By Odin.Zicdeh 2014-05-12 18:37:05
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Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Odin.Zicdeh said: »
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
I heard Obama was born in Seattle.


Didn't know there was a Seattle in Kenya.
Different narrative.


Birth Certificate? 'nuff said.
 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-12 20:33:56
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Odin.Zicdeh said: »
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Odin.Zicdeh said: »
Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
I heard Obama was born in Seattle.


Didn't know there was a Seattle in Kenya.
Different narrative.


Birth Certificate? 'nuff said.
 Odin.Zicdeh
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By Odin.Zicdeh 2014-05-12 21:03:09
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My efforts to stoke the embers into another inferno of rage and lulz isn't working.

I may have to resort to linking homosexuality to Global Warming while simultaneously quoting Donald Sterling.
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 Bismarck.Bloodrose
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By Bismarck.Bloodrose 2014-05-12 21:08:05
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Odin.Zicdeh said: »
My efforts to stoke the embers into another inferno of rage and lulz isn't working.

I may have to resort to linking homosexuality to Global Warming while simultaneously quoting Donald Sterling.
The Unholy Trinity. (oh wait, Unholy Quadrinity!)
 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-12 21:18:35
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Odin.Zicdeh said: »
My efforts to stoke the embers into another inferno of rage and lulz isn't working.

I may have to resort to linking homosexuality to Global Warming while simultaneously quoting Donald Sterling.
Tie it in with Communism and we've got something.

 Lakshmi.Zerowone
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By Lakshmi.Zerowone 2014-05-12 21:52:56
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In 100yrs you're screwed if you live on a coastline

Quote:
The collapse of large parts of the ice sheet in West Antarctica appears to have begun and is almost certainly unstoppable, with global warming accelerating the pace of the disintegration, two groups of scientists reported Monday.

The finding, which had been feared by some scientists for decades, means that a rise in global sea level of at least 10 feet may now be inevitable. The rise may continue to be relatively slow for at least the next century or so, the scientists said, but sometime after that it will probably speed up so sharply as to become a crisis.

“This is really happening,” said Thomas P. Wagner, who runs NASA’s programs on polar ice and helped oversee some of the research. “There’s nothing to stop it now. But you are still limited by the physics of how fast the ice can flow.”

YouTube Video Placeholder


Our Source Was the New York Times...
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 Cerberus.Pleebo
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By Cerberus.Pleebo 2014-05-12 22:48:20
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 Odin.Zicdeh
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By Odin.Zicdeh 2014-05-12 22:50:42
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Not even Altimaomega can ignore this data.
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By Altimaomega 2014-05-12 22:59:36
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Getting screwed 100yrs from now on the coast, sign me up.
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By Altimaomega 2014-05-12 23:06:04
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Odin.Zicdeh said: »


Not even Altimaomega can ignore this data.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_bikini

Thats funny the 1990 bikini looks a lot like the proto-type made in 1946. Before all this climate change/global warming came about.

But hey you have a cool graph like picture so obviously you win right?
 Lakshmi.Saevel
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By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-05-13 06:08:18
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Lye said: »
Something tells me that a good portion of "global warming" skeptics are unlikely to reverse their stance regardless of what or how research is presented.



***Secretly I'm waiting for some nut to say: "God intends for things to get warmer." ***

I was originally an avid supporter of AGW. Until I started actually looking at the underlying theory and mechanics behind it and started questioning their methodology. Then the insane "you must believe us or your EVIL / Koch brothers employee / ect.. cause the consensus.." happened and that immediately set off alarm bells, science is never "settled" and most definitely never by a "consensus". It's done by crafting a theory, then attack that theory and attempting to disprove it. You can prove nearly any theory with an appropriately biased study / setup. You can "prove" that black Jews are infiltrating the worlds governments in an attempt to setup an empire, all you have to do is carefully select for the right data with enough ambiguity to draw the "right" conclusions. The real conclusions don't come until after many people have failed to disprove your theory.

The fact that no disapproval was even allowed to take place, no one was allowed to question the "theory". AGW was (and is now) treated as some sort of religion upon which the tenants and beliefs can not be questioned. That resembles propaganda not science. The theory that the speed of light is a universal speed limit has held true for much longer then AGW yet scientists are still trying to either disprove it or find ways around it. Same with many other fields of science, researchers are always expanding and refuting findings. Yet someone AGW is "above" this? AGW is "settled"? Global temperatures have remained constant for 17 years now which is in direct violation of all previous models. I've already presented some (but not nearly all) of the refutations of AGW theory that AGW theorists have yet to falsify.

As of now AGW theorists haven't proven positive core components of their model while several researchers have successfully refuted multiple aspects of current AGW theory. Those refutations are reasonable enough to cast doubt on the accuracy of the current theory. There is also ample evidence of politically motivated tampering that has resulted in tainted results. This could all change, especially if it gets pulled out of the political lime light and progressives stop trying to use it as grounds for a power grab. Real science can only get meaningful results when politics are kept out of it. I wasn't joking when I said there is a backlash building in the scientific community in regards to the AGW folks. Not for the theory's themselves but for the political influence it's receiving and the fanatical zeal it's followers are adopting. Neither is healthy.
 Ragnarok.Harpunnik
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By Ragnarok.Harpunnik 2014-05-13 07:10:16
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Lakshmi.Saevel said: »
Lye said: »
Something tells me that a good portion of "global warming" skeptics are unlikely to reverse their stance regardless of what or how research is presented.



***Secretly I'm waiting for some nut to say: "God intends for things to get warmer." ***

I was originally an avid supporter of AGW. Until I started actually looking at the underlying theory and mechanics behind it and started questioning their methodology. Then the insane "you must believe us or your EVIL / Koch brothers employee / ect.. cause the consensus.." happened and that immediately set off alarm bells, science is never "settled" and most definitely never by a "consensus". It's done by crafting a theory, then attack that theory and attempting to disprove it. You can prove nearly any theory with an appropriately biased study / setup. You can "prove" that black Jews are infiltrating the worlds governments in an attempt to setup an empire, all you have to do is carefully select for the right data with enough ambiguity to draw the "right" conclusions. The real conclusions don't come until after many people have failed to disprove your theory.

The fact that no disapproval was even allowed to take place, no one was allowed to question the "theory". AGW was (and is now) treated as some sort of religion upon which the tenants and beliefs can not be questioned. That resembles propaganda not science. The theory that the speed of light is a universal speed limit has held true for much longer then AGW yet scientists are still trying to either disprove it or find ways around it. Same with many other fields of science, researchers are always expanding and refuting findings. Yet someone AGW is "above" this? AGW is "settled"? Global temperatures have remained constant for 17 years now which is in direct violation of all previous models. I've already presented some (but not nearly all) of the refutations of AGW theory that AGW theorists have yet to falsify.

As of now AGW theorists haven't proven positive core components of their model while several researchers have successfully refuted multiple aspects of current AGW theory. Those refutations are reasonable enough to cast doubt on the accuracy of the current theory. There is also ample evidence of politically motivated tampering that has resulted in tainted results. This could all change, especially if it gets pulled out of the political lime light and progressives stop trying to use it as grounds for a power grab. Real science can only get meaningful results when politics are kept out of it. I wasn't joking when I said there is a backlash building in the scientific community in regards to the AGW folks. Not for the theory's themselves but for the political influence it's receiving and the fanatical zeal it's followers are adopting. Neither is healthy.

Good point on the science being "settled" and such. The biggest threats to the pureness and objectivity of science is money and politics. When you need to start answering to those, science loses.

I'm not going to rehash points and data probably covered in this 15 page thread, but just find this arguement comical wherever it rears its head. All I see is one side saying climate change is real and the other side saying yeah it is, but prove it is being caused by man, and outside the believed historical norm. Then it is answered either in insults or results showing warming - but never anything convincing that says here...MAN...you did this.

We are still currently in an ice age, plain and simple. Earth without ice is also natural and has occured - and data to show warming has happened suddenly.

Anyways guess I'm going to go cash my check from the Koch bros and see what the bible says about polar bears.
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 Ragnarok.Sekundes
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By Ragnarok.Sekundes 2014-05-13 07:36:53
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Lakshmi.Saevel said: »
I was originally an avid supporter of AGW.
So what is your position now? Obviously your post tells me you don't think that humans are the primary cause but how much do you suppose they account for? What data backs up your position and refutes your old position? And why is this data more trustworthy than the data supporting your old position?
 Lakshmi.Saevel
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By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-05-13 07:53:02
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Ragnarok.Sekundes said: »
Lakshmi.Saevel said: »
I was originally an avid supporter of AGW.
So what is your position now? Obviously your post tells me you don't think that humans are the primary cause but how much do you suppose they account for? What data backs up your position and refutes your old position? And why is this data more trustworthy than the data supporting your old position?

Stated

Quote:
As of now AGW theorists haven't proven positive core components of their model while several researchers have successfully refuted multiple aspects of current AGW theory. Those refutations are reasonable enough to cast doubt on the accuracy of the current theory.

I'm at "not enough information to draw decisive conclusion".

Primary cause is the recorded political influences and refusal of skepticism, even so far as to stigmatization and blacklisting of any researcher who attempts to falsify AGW. Secondary cause is the failure of AGW theorists to refute alternate theory's and models. Tertiary is that AGW theorists have yet to prove the CO2 amplification coefficient that is used (I've previously explained how CO2 can not possibly be credited with the warming it is using traditional thermal dynamics).

As for what initially turned me away, it was the same thing that caused me to convert out of the LDS church and Christianity as a whole. WAY too much "though shalt believe what we tell you and not ask questions" and attempts to manipulate my emotional center.

Anytime anyone tells you "just believe what I say and don't ask questions" or use's emotional imagery / arguments they are trying to manipulate you. Always question manipulation.
 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-13 08:13:49
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They've been trying to prove CO2 causes global warming since the 1800s.
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 Lakshmi.Saevel
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By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-05-13 08:20:32
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Also a note on falsification and why it's so important in scientific research. Anyone can prove anything if they simply use bias when selecting data. To illustrate

Theory: All nun's wear red on Wednesday night.
Proof: It's Wednesday night and I have 10 nun's wearing red.

By only allowing nun's who wore red into my study I can *prove* my theory (technically hypothesis).

Now someone who disagrees with my theory, either through their own belief of through some personal version of the "10th man rule", can use the following test.

Falsification: It's Wednesday night and we have 1 nun wearing blue.

Regardless of how people feel about the first theory, nor how many other scientists believe in the first theory, the second theory has created a refutation of the first theory and thus falsified it. The first theory must be modified to account for the one blue wearing nun and must do so in a universal way. You can't say "all Nuns wear red on Wednesday unless they are not wearing red".

This is what's happened with AGW theory. There have been several counter arguments that successfully demonstrated that parts of AGW theory might not be true. AGW theorists now have to deal with the solar cycle and differences in H2O vapor formation along with the lack of evidence supporting H2O forcing via rapid CO2 increase. There are others but those are some of the big ones.

Instead of accepting counter argument and hammering out a unified theory of the Earth's climate, one that takes into account the possibility that man made CO2 as f*ck all effect, you get vicious public attacks from AGW theorists, university spokesman, politicians and lobbying organizations on anyone attempting counter argument. There was even a pro-AGW scientist and argued that all the negative attacks were a bad thing for their research and was interfering with the process, she was branded a traitor, had her reputation tarnished and nearly got kicked out of her department.

Now does that sound like a well reasoned scientific community or does it sound like a fanatical cult.
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 Bismarck.Bloodrose
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By Bismarck.Bloodrose 2014-05-13 08:27:00
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Got a link to that story? might be worth a read, or, should we take your word on it, because it's something you heard?
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 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-13 08:39:24
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Quote:
Arrhenius developed a theory to explain the ice ages, and in 1896 he was the first scientist to attempt to calculate how changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect. He was influenced by the work of others, including Joseph Fourier and John Tyndall. Arrhenius used the infrared observations of the moon by Frank Washington Very and Samuel Pierpont Langley at the Allegheny Observatory in Pittsburgh to calculate the absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric CO2 and water vapour. Using 'Stefan's law' (better known as the Stefan-Boltzmann law), he formulated his greenhouse law. In its original form, Arrhenius' greenhouse law reads as follows:

if the quantity of carbonic acid [CO2] increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression.

The following equivalent formulation of Arrhenius' greenhouse law is still used today:

ΔF = α Ln(C/C_0)

Here C is carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration measured in parts per million by volume (ppmv); C_0 denotes a baseline or unperturbed concentration of CO2, and ΔF is the radiative forcing, measured in watts per square meter. The constant alpha (α) has been assigned a value between five and seven.
Arrhenius at the first Solvay conference on chemistry in 1922 in Brussels.

Based on information from his colleague Arvid Högbom (sv), Arrhenius was the first person to predict that emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels and other combustion processes were large enough to cause global warming. In his calculation Arrhenius included the feedback from changes in water vapor as well as latitudinal effects, but he omitted clouds, convection of heat upward in the atmosphere, and other essential factors. His work is currently seen less as an accurate prediction of global warming than as the first demonstration that it should be taken as a serious possibility.

Arrhenius' absorption values for CO2 and his conclusions met criticism by Knut Ångström in 1900, who published the first modern infrared spectrum of CO2 with two absorption bands, and published experimental results that seemed to show that absorption of infrared radiation by the gas in the atmosphere was already "saturated" so that adding more could make no difference. Arrhenius replied strongly in 1901 (Annalen der Physik), dismissing the critique altogether. He touched the subject briefly in a technical book titled Lehrbuch der kosmischen Physik (1903). He later wrote Världarnas utveckling (1906) (German: Das Werden der Welten [1907], English: Worlds in the Making [1908]) directed at a general audience, where he suggested that the human emission of CO2 would be strong enough to prevent the world from entering a new ice age, and that a warmer earth would be needed to feed the rapidly increasing population:
Wikipedia Article
On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the Ground (PDF)
 Lakshmi.Saevel
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By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-05-13 08:39:39
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It would take me awhile to dig it up, was around ~2011 I believe. When I get into work tomorrow I'll check my links and cheat sheets.
I remember it because it was only of those "WTF is this" moments. A researcher went on record saying that while she felt the AGW theory was correct, that the AGW proponents shouldn't be hostile to skeptics because skepticism was part of the scientific process and necessary. She got blasted for it by several liberal publications and nearly got fired for the publicity it created. This was when pro AGW political entities were forcing "the science is settled and we have a consensus so no further research is necessary, we MUST ACT NOW" line.

Being skeptical of what I say is healthy and I mind people being so.
 Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2014-05-13 08:48:37
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Give me access to a big enough government research grant, and I'll believe in global warming too.
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 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-05-13 08:50:45
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Ragnarok.Nausi said: »
Give me access to a big enough government research grant, and I'll believe in global warming too.
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 Lakshmi.Saevel
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By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-05-13 09:02:11
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The problem with Arrhenius's theory is that you can not get more energy out of a system then what's put into it. There is not an infinite amount of re-radiated solar energy coming from the earth that CO2 is opaque to. CO2 is transparent to most of the energy that is re-radiated, it can only absorb and re-emit a small portion of this energy. It's expressed as the probability that a single photon starting from the surface will make it to space without being re-radiated back down. Molecules re-emit photons in essentially a random direction. Energy absorbed from below has a chance to be shot back down, in some other direction, or even into another CO2 molecule to be shot out again. So statistically you eventually get to a point where the chances of a photon making it to space are so small as to be near non-existent (there is always a chance it could happy). That is the point at which you've reached saturation and no additional CO2 will have a meaningful effect on re-radiated energy. That point has been demonstrated to be right about 280PPM with the first 20PPM responsible for nearly all the greenhouse effect directly attributed to CO2. Any additional re-radiation must come from H2O or Methane.

The blanket analogy is actually pretty good (though inaccurate). Except instead of just one blanket it's more like does adding one blanket to a pile of 100 have any meaningful effect?

The real dangerous greenhouse gas is by far methane. Per molecule it's way more active the either H2O or CO2 and once it's in the upper atmosphere it stays there indefinitely until random cosmic radiation (gamma rays) force it to break apart. The only reason it's not a political movement is that we have hundreds of years before it becomes an issue, and you can't convince a population to cede you emergency power with that.

Now eventually CO2 will become a problem, not in temperature increase but in the effect it will have on the Oceanic ecosystem. It'll cause the oceans to become more acidic which will cause many species to die off, but also cause others to flourish due to the abundance of algae. So we're talking a shift in the ecosystem what will cause other species to adapt. That won't happen until well north of 1000ppm atmospheric though. Again not soon enough to create a scare and profit off of.
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By Lakshmi.Flavin 2014-05-13 09:02:36
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Why are people the decry the studies that say global warming is real and it's effects have been contributed to greatly by human presence but when a study comes out to say that global warming isn't real or hasn't been brought about by human actions you're all over that like white on rice?
 Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2014-05-13 09:02:41
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Leviathan.Chaosx said: »
Ragnarok.Nausi said: »
Give me access to a big enough government research grant, and I'll believe in global warming too.
Bingo!
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